No Deal Brexit: What A Prospect.

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Whichever side of the fence you sit, the current Brexit negotiations are irrefutably shambolic. From the delay on the vote for Theresa May’s deal, to a quashed no-confidence vote in her leadership. As we edge closer to May 29th, a ‘no-deal’ scenario is starting to feel like a real possibility.

But what could this mean for the UK? Not to alarm anyone, but the reality could be frankly pretty miserable for a variety of reasons.

Food Shortages 

According to the BBC, the UK ‘produces roughly 60% of the food it consumes’ and of the remaining 40%, ‘about three-quarters is imported directly from the European Union, including a lot of fresh fruit and vegetables like citrus fruits, grapes and lettuces.’

Although here in Britain we have more supermarkets per capita than any other country, our food stores actually keep little stock. Put another way, our food industry depends on seat of the pants supply chains, which arrive overnight, the majority of it through Dover.

This is cause for major concern around a ‘no deal’ Brexit as a border pile up could have serious implications on our food supply.

Medicine Shortages

Another significant problem posed is the supply of medication. The UK imports in excess of 37 million medications packs every month from the EU and EEA nations. Drawn out disruption at Dover could compromise supplies of both licensed and unlicensed medicines as well as other crucial healthcare items.

Medicines are slightly less worrying as we are able to stockpile supplies of things like tablets, yet other imported medications like insulin for example that need refrigeration will present greater logistical difficulties.

Less Cash Flow

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Sterling had fallen by 1% on reports of the delay earlier in the week but fell even further when Theresa May addressed Parliament this morning. At close to its lowest since April last year, the pound has dropped two cents against the dollar at $1.2562 and 1% lower than the euro at €1.1059.

The harsh drops just go to show the increasing uncertainty about the UK's ability to exit smoothly.

Brexit has already weakened our economy by an estimated 1-2% of GDP or £20-40bn a year.  According to these estimates every British household is £870 worse every year and that figure is set to increase.

All in all, the outlook is currently pretty bleak for a no-deal outcome to our Brexit journey. In an ideal world, we would be getting ready for a second referendum with a better idea of the reality of leaving the EU. However, as it stands, we must hope that Theresa May is up to the job of negotiating a deal that doesn’t negatively impact British livelihoods.